As financial markets digest the latest economic data pointing to resilient consumer spending, durable labor market strength and chronically high inflation, a disturbing trend of lower survey participation rates for key government statistical releases has evolved over the past several years, one that threatens to undermine the integrity of survey data and potentially roil financial markets if it persists. Indeed, the implications could be far-reaching as lower response rates for high value data like payrolls and employment, job openings and employment cost indices have the potential to skew the very data relied upon by policymakers and private sector executives to set monetary and fiscal policies and calibrate staffing levels across wide swaths of the economy. For example, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls, has seen response rates by employers fall from more than 60% during 2012 to under 45% as of the fourth quarter of last year.
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